Do You Have a Marketing Problem or a Timing Problem?

You kicked off October with energy and intention. The team was aligned, the Q4 plan was solid, and everyone knew the goal: end the year strong. Push through the finish line. Make these last three months count. 

Now it's early November, and you're looking at the numbers with a growing sense of unease. 

Sales aren't terrible. But they're… squishier than you wanted them to be. The pipeline looks healthy on paper, but deals are moving slower. Conversations are happening, but conversions the effort. The momentum you wanted in October hasn't become reality. 

Your instinct kicks in immediately: we need to do more. More outreach. More marketing activity. Better messaging. Bigger push. If the numbers aren't where they should be, clearly we need to double down on our efforts. 

But before you approve that increased ad spend or tell your team to ramp up activity, ask yourself one critical question: 

Do you have a marketing problem, or do you have a timing problem? 

Because if you're pushing hard in November while your customers aren't even thinking about buying until February, no amount of "better marketing" will fix the disconnect. You're not failing at marketing—you're fighting against your customer's natural cycle. 

And here's the uncomfortable truth most CEOs don't realize: your entire forecast might be company-focused when it should be customer-centric. 

The Marketing Problem Assumption 

When sales don't match your goals, the diagnosis feels obvious: it must be a marketing problem. 

Maybe our messaging isn't compelling enough. Maybe we're not posting frequently enough. Maybe our ads aren't reaching the right people. Maybe we need a website refresh, better graphics, more content, stronger calls-to-action. 

So you do what successful CEOs do—you take action. You approve increased marketing spend. You tell your team to ramp up activity. You refine the messaging, boost more posts, add another email campaign to the schedule. 

All of this activity feels productive. You're doing something. You're not just sitting back accepting soft sales—you're fighting for better results. 

But here's what's happening beneath the surface: you're treating a timing problem like it's a marketing problem. And that creates a dangerous cycle. 

You push harder in November. Your team works overtime creating content and outreach. You increase ad spend. You track every metric obsessively. 

And when the results are still soft? You assume you need even better marketing. More activity. Bigger budget. Stronger push. 

Meanwhile, your customers simply aren't in buying mode during Q4. They're dealing with year-end budgets, holiday schedules, and their own fourth-quarter pressures. Your marketing isn't failing—you're just trying to sell when they're not ready to buy. 

The Company-Focused Forecast Trap 

Here's what's really happening: your forecast is company-focused when it should be customer-centric. 

Think about how you built your Q4 goals. You looked at what your company needs—the revenue targets that would make this a successful year, the growth trajectory that keeps you on track, the numbers that satisfy investors or fund next year's initiatives. 

You mapped out quarterly targets based on when YOU need the money to hit, when YOUR company needs to close deals, when YOUR fiscal calendar demands results. 

This feels logical. It's how business planning works, right? Set goals, create forecasts, hold teams accountable to hitting those numbers. 

But here's the question you probably didn't ask: When do your customers actually need what you sell? 

Not when do you need to sell it. When do THEY need to buy it? 

When Forecasting Aligns with Customer Cycles—And When It Doesn't 

Here's where this gets interesting: the answer to "Do I have a marketing problem or a timing problem?" depends entirely on understanding YOUR customer's cyclical patterns. 

Let's look at two very different examples. 

Example 1: When Q4 Should Be Strong 

If you sell retail products—gifts, toys, electronics, jewelry—Q4 probably IS your strongest quarter, and your forecast should reflect that. Why? Because your customers' buying intensity actually peaks during the holidays. 

According to Adobe's analysis, Q4 accounts for 26.8% of total annual retail sales across all verticals. But in gift-oriented sectors, the holiday quarter has even greater significance—representing 34.9% of hobby, toy, and game sales; 34.7% of jewelry sales; and 31.1% of electronics sales.[1] 

For these businesses, forecasting Q4 as your make-or-break quarter makes perfect sense. Your customers ARE spending then. Their need intensity IS higher. You're aligning your company's revenue expectations with your customer's actual buying cycle. 

Example 2: When Q4 Sets You Up for Disappointment 

Now let's flip to a completely different business: women's health services or wellness products. 

You're looking at Q4 thinking "We need to push hard to end the year strong." Your forecast shows Q4 revenue matching or exceeding Q1. Your team is ready to ramp up marketing activity. 

But here's what the data actually shows: Out-of-pocket healthcare spending is highest in the first quarter and lowest in the fourth quarter across all study years, according to 2024 research published in the American Journal of Managed Care.[2] 

This isn't a coincidence. Women are more likely than men to report heightened stress throughout preparations for winter holidays, and are less likely to take time to relax or manage their holiday stress in healthy ways, according to research by the American Psychological Association.[3] A 2006 APA survey shows 46% of women experience feelings of financial stress at the holidays compared to 35% of men surveyed.[4] 

Your potential customers are stretched thin—dealing with holiday budgets, year-end work pressures, and family obligations. Their need for healthcare and wellness services hasn't disappeared, but their capacity to prioritize and pay for those services has shifted dramatically. 

If you're forecasting Q4 revenue to match Q1 for a women's health or wellness business, you're not just being optimistic—you're forecasting against your customer's actual spending patterns. You're building your company's revenue expectations around when YOU need the money, not when your customers are actually spending. 

The Critical Difference 

See the pattern? It's not that Q4 is universally good or bad. It's that your forecast needs to match YOUR customer's cyclical reality, not just your company's fiscal calendar or revenue needs. 

How to Identify Your Customer's Pattern 

The good news? You probably already have the data you need to understand your customer's cyclical buying patterns. You just need to look at it through a different lens. 

Here's the framework: 

Pull your historical data. Gather whatever sales information you have readily available—units sold, enrollments, subscriptions, revenue numbers. Look at monthly totals for at least the last 2-3 years if you have it. 

Calculate each month as a percentage of annual total. Take each month's sales and calculate what percentage it represents of your total annual sales. This normalizes the data and makes patterns easier to spot regardless of overall growth. 

Visualize the pattern. If you have multiple years of data, create line charts showing each year, or use bar charts to compare the same months across different years. Look for consistent patterns: Does Q1 always outperform Q4? Does Q4 spike every year? Are certain months consistently stronger or weaker? 

Account for outliers. Identify months that don't fit the pattern and ask yourself what was happening then. Was there a pandemic shutdown? A major market disruption? A company-specific event? Decide whether those anomalies should influence your future planning or be excluded as one-time occurrences. 

The pattern will reveal itself. And once you see it, you can't unsee it. 

What to Do Once You Know Your Pattern 

Understanding your customer's cyclical buying pattern isn't just interesting information—it's strategic intelligence that should fundamentally reshape how you plan and allocate resources. 

Here's what to do with this insight: 

1. Realign Your Forecast and Resources

If Q4 is consistently your weakest quarter, lower your Q4 projections. Stop throwing money at a quarter that won't deliver the returns you're expecting. 

Remember the 5-quarter planning approach we discussed in our first blog? This is where it becomes powerful. You're not stuck with traditional quarterly thinking anymore. You're building momentum across five quarters—Q4 2025 through Q4 2026—which gives you the flexibility to align your resources with actual customer buying patterns instead of arbitrary fiscal periods. 

Don't keep setting yourself up for disappointment by forecasting what you WANT to happen instead of what your customer data tells you WILL happen. 

2. Invest BEFORE High-Intensity Quarters, Not During

Here's the strategic shift that changes everything: Don't wait until Q1 to ramp up marketing if Q1 is your peak buying quarter. 

Spend in Q4 to set up Q1 success. Build awareness. Nurture prospects. Create momentum. Plant seeds that will bloom when your customers are actually ready to buy. 

Think of it like farming—you don't plant seeds the day you want to harvest. You prepare the ground, plant in advance, and cultivate throughout the growing season so you're ready when harvest time arrives. 

The goal isn't to generate immediate returns in every quarter. It's to make your naturally strong quarters even stronger by priming the pump beforehand. 

3. Adjust Activities for Low-Intensity Quarters

Don't try to force new customer acquisition when your prospects aren't in buying mode. That's like pushing a rope—lots of effort, minimal results. 

Instead, use low-intensity quarters differently: 

• Nurture existing relationships with current clients 

• Ask satisfied customers for referrals and testimonials 

• Reinforce value and deepen engagement with your customer base 

• Build the foundation for future quarters 

Keep revenue flowing through retention, expansion, and referrals rather than fighting an uphill battle for new acquisition when timing is working against you. 

Your Next Step 

Here's what I want you to do right now: Block two hours on your calendar this week to do this analysis. 

Pull your last 2-3 years of monthly sales data. Calculate each month as a percentage of annual total. Look for the pattern. Ask yourself: Are we forecasting based on when WE need the money, or when our CUSTOMERS actually buy? 

If you discover your forecast has been company-focused instead of customer-centric, don't beat yourself up. Most successful businesses fall into this trap because traditional business planning teaches us to think about our needs, our goals, our fiscal calendar. 

But now you know better. And knowing better means you can plan better. 

In our next blog, we'll show you exactly how to align your entire marketing plan with these customer intensity cycles. Once you know WHEN your customers' needs become more urgent, you can strategically plan what to say, where to show up, and how to position yourself so you're the obvious choice when they're ready to buy. 

For now, map the pattern. Understand your customer's rhythm. Stop fighting against their natural cycles and start working with them. 

Because the difference between a marketing problem and a timing problem? It's the difference between working harder and working smarter. 

References 

[1] Drip. (2023). "19 Key Holiday Shopping Statistics You Need to Know." Adobe Digital Economy Index data. https://www.drip.com/blog/holiday-shopping-statistics 

[2] American Journal of Managed Care. (2024). "Beyond Average Spending: Distributional and Seasonal Commercial Insurance Trends, 2012-2021." https://www.ajmc.com/view/beyond-average-spending-distributional-and-seasonal-commercial-insurance-trends-2012-2021 

[3] Capital Women's Care. (2024). "Beat the Holiday Blues." Based on American Psychological Association research. https://www.cwcare.net/beat-the-holiday-blues/ 

[4] Capital Women's Care. (2024). "Beat the Holiday Blues." Based on 2006 APA survey data. https://www.cwcare.net/beat-the-holiday-blues/